The hottest Tokyo rubber diving, Shanghai Rubber t

2022-08-13
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Tokyo rubber diving Shanghai Rubber trend blurred

Tokyo rubber diving Shanghai Rubber trend showed experimental data and results after soaring for four consecutive trading days, followed by two consecutive limit falls. The developed experimental machine product blurred

□ Yong'an futures yupeibin

from December 5 to 7, the benchmark contract of Tokyo rubber contract soared from 200 yen/kg to 224.9 yen/kg, presenting a super bull market. However, as domestic investors' views on the seasonal impact of supply gradually changed, Tokyo rubber fell by the limit for consecutive highs. Is the decline in the price of Tokyo glue market the end of the rise or a pause? How much room for short-term decline? How does the international market affect Shanghai Jiao? Both spot traders and investors are generally confused about these issues

speculation is active again

how to detect the thermal properties of thin films has become an international difficulty. Recently, the prices of gold, silver and other varieties in the international market, especially in Japan, have risen sharply; The market's expectation that southern Thailand and northern Malaysia will soon enter the high production period has not come yet; The US Japan exchange rate rose to the top stage; The prices of natural gas and heating oil in the United States soared, pushing crude oil from $55 to more than $61; Many Southeast Asian rubber dealers once again signed many forward contracts with international tire dealers. In this context, the speculative power of the rubber market is reactivated. Long funds finally seized an excellent opportunity to counter attack, and continued to push up the market in the form of short-term positions. The most powerful advantage of short positions (expected high-yield period) was lost due to the delay in improving the weather. In the face of the strong rise of fund bulls, important technical points were constantly overcome, and the closing positions of some short positions pushed up the price again. In the short term, when the weather has not improved and the supply increase is limited, the pressure of spot real offer is small, and the fund still has a certain ability to control the market

lack of spot price impetus

looking back on the rise of the international rubber market, the biggest difference from the previous rise in avoiding harmful gases, dust and oil mist is that this round of market basically failed to get the cooperation of the sales area price, and both domestic and international spot prices passively followed the rise of the Tokyo futures market. Christmas and other factors are destined to be the off-season for international tire enterprises to purchase in December. Domestic enterprises, especially inclined rubber tire enterprises, are also in the off-season of consumption due to maintenance and sales pressure. Those who need Park Koo in the short term are also brought into China from the advanced and mature aluminum alloy cable technology in North America. They expect the supply in southern Thailand and Indonesia to increase and the rubber price to fall before proceeding. The price rise has never been supported by spot consumption. So we can only say that the Fund found a good combination of the expected contrast of supply recovery and the extremely low global inventory, and launched this round of market

the operating mechanism of crude oil rise driving the price rise of natural rubber is: crude oil rise - synthetic rubber rise - substitution effect drives the price rise of natural rubber. However, this round of crude oil rise is different from the rise in the price of synthetic rubber. First, synthetic rubber is in the off-season of consumption, which is difficult to drive the price of natural rubber. Petrochemical enterprises are facing the pressure of year-end assessment and must maintain low inventory to complete the assessment of annual production and sales rate. Therefore, they dare not easily stabilize or raise prices; The intermediate link is accounted at the end of the year, and the capital turnover is not smooth. Generally, it does not receive more goods, especially in this case, it is unwilling to receive goods; The cost pressure of downstream enterprises this year is too great, and the sales of products are also sluggish. At the end of the year, the bank repaid the loan, the return of funds and other problems make it have no extra funds to stock up. Secondly, from the perspective of the impact of crude oil on synthetic rubber, US $55 is an important point. The price of synthetic rubber is less sensitive to the price of crude oil greater than US $55, so the increase of crude oil of nearly US $5 is difficult to promote the large rise in the price of synthetic rubber in the off-season of consumption. Therefore, so far, there is no substantial use of this round of crude oil rise to promote Tianjiao, which is more reflected in psychology

little impact on domestic Shanghai rubber industry

as the domestic market has basically been in a cut-off state, demand changes have been expected, and there are few fundamental uncertainties, the domestic market price mainly depends on the price changes in the international market. Therefore, the spot price difference at home and abroad has become a key factor in determining the price of the domestic futures market. The external strength and internal weakness of some time ago, the external weakness and internal strength of the past two days, the transaction amplification of domestic agricultural reclamation on the 12th, and the daily limit of the domestic market on the 12th are all the best manifestations of the price difference factors. Under the current price difference system, the domestic spot glue is slightly higher than that of Thailand, and the price difference of Indonesian glue is basically reasonable. Therefore, we infer that the domestic glue may be more linked with the price of Indonesian glue, which will be weaker than that of Thai spot glue but stronger than that of Tokyo futures market. Considering the experience of international spot rubber price changes over the years and the relationship between domestic spot price differences, the domestic market should have a strong support at 16500 yuan

to sum up, in the case of extremely low global inventories, funds in the Tokyo market make full use of comprehensive factors such as weather, crude oil and exchange rate to promote a round of anti seasonal market, but lack of substantive foundation. At the same time, we must also note that the main rising market of Tianjiao over the years mainly occurs in the off-season. Whether this round of market partially predicts the market trend of the next stage needs further observation

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